IATA’s 2024 full-year air cargo report recorded an 11.3% rise in global demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers. Available capacity grew 7.4%. International demand climbed 12.2%. Demand outpaced supply, but the global figures do not mean every route faced a shortage. A buyer shipping between two smaller airports may see a very different picture.
That gap matters when assessing 2026 capacity. Freight operators may add flights or adjust schedules, while passenger aircraft belly space also affects available cargo room. Buyers should compare capacity on their actual lanes, not rely on market-wide growth alone. Ask for confirmed space, clear cutoff times, and recent records of on-time uplift. Small details count. A late handover at a busy cargo terminal can erase an otherwise fast transit plan.
IATA’s annual totals are useful context, not a lane-level forecast. Seasonal peaks, trade shifts, and aircraft schedules can change the picture quickly. Even so, I would not treat one strong year as a guarantee of tight capacity in 2026. When reviewing quotes, check whether the proposed service has room during peak weeks, and ask how changes are communicated. Annual averages can hide awkward gaps.